The Future of the Internet: 2020 and beyond
Just before Christmas the latest Pew survey of experts’ views on the future of the Internet was published. Offering a series of predictions on how the Internet will look in 2020, the comments of those involved in the creation and development of the Internet, as well as business, government and academic thinkers, make for fascinating reading. Will technical or security considerations mean we need a whole new Internet, a ‘clean slate’? Will changing technology change how we relate to one another, for instance making us more ‘forgiving’ or ‘tolerant’? The survey covers issues such as privacy, security, the work/life balance, the use of virtual worlds for medical and military training, and whether the proliferation of mobile devices in the third world can bring development. Also implicit is the question of how we can predict the future at all. But just for a flavour, here are some quotes:
‘While air-typing and haptic gestures are widespread and ubiquitous [in 2020], the arrival of embedded optical displays, thought-transcription, eye-movement tracking, and predictive-behavior modelling will fundamentally alter the human-computer interaction model. What we think is performed almost in real time…’
‘This one sounds too much like the Kitchen of the Future at some 1930s World Fair; I think we’ll have better, more adaptable devices, but I doubt we’ll be air-typing’
‘…there will be ‘subvocal’ inputs that detect ‘almost speech’ that you will, but not actually voice. Small sensors on teeth will also let you tap commands. Your eyeballs will track desires, sensed by your eyeglasses. And so on.’
Sensors on our teeth! Thought-transcription! Its worth a look.
Ben O'Loughlin
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Reader Comments (1)
Great post, it seems like we are on the verge of entering a William Gibson novel.
But does anyone else feel that technology which reads your thought processes and translates them to the screen is slightly sinister? Gaping holes in internet security mean that people on the other side of the world can get my credit card details. If ones mind is integrated into the system, what else could people steal?
Also, online worlds are pretty addictive as they stand (here is an extreme example: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/technology/4137782.stm). With more sophisticated force feedback devices or even technology that bypasses our senses to go straight to the source (something like this maybe: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/4411591.stm), will we still want to go out into the physical world where it is cold, pretty gray and we can't fly/fight dragons/command armies/rule the world?
Lastly, the technical development of the internet is pretty exciting (if a little scary in its implications), but there are still good old fashioned worries about people being exposed to things they shouldn't. Recently it has been suggested that we need some kind of internet bbfc warning system (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7800846.stm). Although I find the idea of censorship on the internet pretty abhorrent (especially when the suggestion comes from a government minister) and cannot see how it can be implemented, a truly immersive web will only compound the issue. Are we just opening up a realm of unfettered play, where we can safely do all the things we can't in the real world? What are the ethical issues?
I think science fiction comes into its own here. The aforementioned William Gibson, as well as Isaac Asimov and Phillip K. Dick (to name but a few) all grappled with what technological development would mean for human society. A serious rereading may be in order.